The race for Texas' Fourth Congressional District begins Monday: ANALYSIS

The race for a rare open seat in the U.S. Congress will begin first thing Monday morning as John Ratcliffe is expected to be exiting Texas' 4th Congressional seat in the coming weeks after being tapped by President Trump for a new job on Sunday afternoon.

A special election will be called to fill the position, and a local political analyst told us Sunday afternoon that he expects multiple candidates in a race that could cost millions.

John Ratcliffe is a known quantity in Washington, D.C. and his past as Acting U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Texas as well as his steady performance in congressional hearings means that he has an almost 100% chance of being confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be the new Director of National Intelligence.

President Trump confirmed Sunday afternoon in a Tweet that Rep. Ratcliffe was his choice to replace former Sen. Dan Coats in the position. Conservative commentators have been disappointed in Coats' performance.

The race will likely draw multiple candidates — both Democrat and Republican. However, the real action will probably be in the Republican primary. But both parties will likely have vigorous primaries in the special election.

Whoever wins the special election could, however, be vulnerable to a challenge a few months later in the November 2020 election — especially if there is a tough primary fight in which the victor only wins by one or two points.

President Trump is very popular in the district, and he received a whopping 75% of the vote of the congressional district in 2016. President George W. Bush, a Texas native, only received 66% of the vote in 2000 and 70% in 2004.

Therefore, a pro-Trump conservative would obviously do very well in the race to succeed John Ratcliffe. It's also common to expect that a loyalist close to the former congressman might have designs on the congressional seat.

However, it is not guaranteed that Ratcliffe will wade into the political endorsement game as he is almost certain to be sitting in the office of  the Director of National Intelligence in the coming months.

Editor's note: Stay tuned for daily coverage of the race for the Fourth Congressional District.